It’s been over a week since Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important trading route amid the U.S.-Iran war in which the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed.
Trump Warns Iran Against Using Mines
The issue escalated on Tuesday, amid reports that Iran is planning on placing naval mines across the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump threatened severe military consequences if Iran mined the Strait.
“If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed immediately. If for any reason mines were placed and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
The U.S. on Tuesday announced that it had sunk 16 Iranian minelaying ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
Shadow Fleet On The Rise
Amid the U.S.-Iran war and the Islamic Republic’s closing down of the strait, there has been a significant decline in shipping, with data revealing that shadow fleet vessels now dominate tanker transits through the strait.
Shadow fleet vessels are sanctioned tankers, often used to move sanctioned crude from Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
Prediction Market Bets
The prediction market has been making all kinds of bets amid the conflict, from whether the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to when the U.S. will place boots on the ground.
Bettors are now betting on how many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March.
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract “Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?”
Over $57,000 have been bet on the contract so far.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
The prediction market is betting on a significant decline in shipping, with the “20+” option having a 54% probability, as per bettors.
When the number is increased to “40+,” only 30% bettors think it is possible and the number falls to just 22% when we go the “80+” option.
For context, data from the UN Trade and Development shows that the average number of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in February was 129 per day.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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