President Donald Trump may have signaled that the war in Iran is almost over, but cryptocurrency bettors don’t see an official declaration of the end of hostilities before this month.
When Will Trump Officially Announce The War Over?
Polymarket odds that Trump or U.S. officials will formally declare the end of the military campaign by March 31 have jumped to 44%, up from just 11% the previous day. The odds that a declaration comes by March 15 rose marginally to 11%.
Meanwhile, punters see a 73% chance that the fighting will officially end by April 30, climbing to 82% for a resolution by June 30.
Some other Polymarket contracts were also impacted. The odds that a third country, other than the U.S. and Israel, strikes Iran by the end of the month dropped 10 percentage points to 45%.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
War Of Words
These developments come after Trump said that the war against Iran is “pretty much” completed and could end sooner than expected.
Trump claimed that Iran’s ability to wage war has “severely diminished” and its missile arsenal is “down to a scatter.”
However, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards retorted, saying that they, not the U.S., would “determine the end of the war,” according to AFP.
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was named Iran’s new supreme leader after his father was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Trump said that the new leader would need U.S. approval to remain in power, warning in an interview with ABC News that without his endorsement, the leader would not “last long.”
Image via Shutterstock/ Joshua Sukoff
Recent Comments