Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) rejected $73,500 following a brief early March rally as Into The Cryptoverse analyst Benjamin Cowen declares the “simulation confirmed,” arguing BTC is tracking the average return of prior midterm years with 2014, 2018, and 2022 precision.
The Historical Playbook
Cowen predicted a month ago that Bitcoin would find a low in February, stay weak through February, rally in the first week of March, and then fade that rally. “We really do live in a simulation,” Cowen said as Bitcoin hit $73,500 before surrendering those gains.
The pattern repeats across midterm cycles. Bitcoin drops into February, rallies in early March, and then sells off just like the average of all prior midterm years.
Despite narratives about ISM data, Jane Street, oil prices, and labor market weakness, Bitcoin follows the historical script.
Comparing 2026 to 2014 shows nearly identical moves: rally early, capitulate, rally into early March, go sideways briefly, and then drop into April.
The 2018 pattern bottomed around the same time with a larger drop because the cycle topped on euphoria rather than apathy.
The Four-Year Cycle Debate
Cowen addressed skeptics who question whether the four-year cycle will continue. “Do I expect that for the next 50 years, Bitcoin will behave on a perfectly predictable four-year cycle? No,” Cowen said. “But the problem is that I think you’ll get wrecked more frequently if you assume it will end.”
The betting strategy favors the cycle. People who keep thinking the cycle will end get wrecked while those who keep betting on the four-year cycle keep winning.
“Eventually, betting on the four-year cycle will probably be a losing bet,” Cowen acknowledged. “But maybe it’s just worth betting on it until it doesn’t work.”
The adjustment happens when the market demands it. “You adjust when the market tells you there’s a reason to. There’s not really a reason to adjust if the market just keeps doing the same thing it always does.”
The April Threat
Following the exact playbooks of 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin typically chops sideways immediately after the early March rejection before breaking down to lower lows throughout April and May.
The 2022 pattern extended through late March but only swept the early March high before heading lower.
The current consolidation fits the pattern. Bitcoin might bounce for a few days in a tight, choppy range before the broader downtrend resumes.
The immediate technical risk is a breakdown below February lows, confirming the next phase of the 2026 bear market.
Image: Shutterstock
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