As the Assembly of Experts in Iran moves towards confirming a new supreme leader, President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to be “personally involved” in the selection process, labeling Mojtaba Khamenei as “a lightweight” and drawing parallels to his approach in Venezuela. Trump has indicated that the U.S. might see “regime change in Iran,” yet remains skeptical about the current frontrunner.
This backdrop of U.S. interest intensifies the stakes surrounding the leadership transition, particularly as military tensions escalate, with the Revolutionary Guard recently claiming responsibility for an attack on a U.S.-linked tanker in the Persian Gulf. The situation reflects a broader conflict that has led to significant disruptions in tanker traffic, impacting global oil prices, which have risen approximately 18% since the onset of hostilities.
According to the Jerusalem Post on Sunday, Iran’s Assembly of Experts confirmed it has chosen a new supreme leader, with member Ahmad Alamolhoda saying Hosseini Bushehri will handle the public announcement.
Early signals point to Mojtaba Khamenei as the likely pick, and the prospect of a son following his father is fueling debate over dynastic echoes in a system built to reject monarchy, as dynastic succession concerns intensify.
As per the report, the decision has been made inside the clerical body but the chosen name has not been formally released, with members describing near-agreement even as unresolved hurdles persist.
Why Iran’s Leadership Transition Is Critical
Iran’s leadership gap has been managed by an interim trio: President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, and cleric Alireza Arafi. In parallel, another Assembly figure, Ahmad Khatami, told state television on Wednesday the body was “close to a conclusion,” without identifying finalists.
As per the report by Reuters, another Assembly member, Mohsen Heidari Alekasir, tied the selection criteria to guidance attributed to the late leader that the top figure should “be hated by the enemy” rather than celebrated abroad.
Israel’s defense establishment has also issued blunt warnings, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying on Wednesday that any successor could be assassinated, “no matter what his name is or the place where he hides.”
Israel’s military also amplified the threat online, with the IDF’s Farsi-language account posting on X that it would pursue whoever takes the role and warning participants in the selection meeting that it would target them as well. As reported by Jpost, the message followed the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and framed the succession as an attempt by Iran’s leadership to reconstitute itself.
Who’s Really Pulling The Strings In Iran?
The internal dispute is also about legitimacy and optics, because Mojtaba has not held a formal government job even though he fought in the Iran-Iraq war and studied in Qom. His clerical standing is commonly described as hojatoleslam, a rung below the ayatollah rank often associated with the top post.
That résumé has long been paired with claims of behind-the-scenes influence, including a role likened to Ahmad Khomeini during Ruhollah Khomeini‘s era as a trusted gatekeeper and power broker. Mojtaba was born in Mashhad in 1969, studied theology with teachers that included his father and Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, and served at the front in 1987-1988.
Jpost’s account said the Assembly met largely online on Thursday and described “heavy pressure” from the Revolutionary Guards to back Mojtaba. Separately, reporting has portrayed him as having built relationships inside the security establishment over decades, including links to figures such as Ahmad Vahidi, Hossein Taeb, and парламент speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
How Mojtaba Khamenei’s Rise Affects Regional Stability
The dynastic question has become harder to ignore because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, ruled from 1989 after succeeding Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah. A father-to-son handoff would be a first for the Islamic Republic and would clash with its foundational anti-monarchy narrative.
There are also signs of resistance inside the clerical establishment, including reports that eight members of the 88-person Assembly refused to attend the vote and that some objected to Mojtaba’s religious credentials. Another report said Khamenei himself had been uneasy about elevating his son and had kept the topic off-limits while alive.
Other dynamics have narrowed the field over time, including the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a 2024 helicopter crash after he had been viewed as a leading contender. Separate financial reporting has also tied Mojtaba to a large investment web, describing properties and funding channels that move billions of dollars into Western markets, though his personal wealth has not been publicly pinned down.
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