The U.S.-Iran war is all set to enter its sixth day, with no signs of a ceasefire or an agreement anytime soon. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war, along with several senior leaders.
The death toll in Iran has reportedly crossed 1,000, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth saying that Israel and the U.S. are just beginning their strikes.
Boots On The Ground?
While both the U.S. and Israel continue to conduct strikes on Iran, the two countries have yet to send boots on the ground. So far, there has been no mention of either country deploying forces.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract “US forces enter Iran by..?”
Over $4.8 million has been bet on the contract so far.
As per bettors, the chance of US forces entering Iran by March 7 are 12%, down by 36% and by March 14 are 19%, down by 32%.
| Date | Probability |
| Mar. 7 | 12% |
| Mar. 14 | 19% |
| Mar. 31 | 41% |
| Dec. 31 | 60% |
The probability increases as we go to March 31, with bettors anticipating a 41% probability and it further increases to 60% on December 31.
Will The Iranian Regime Fall?
Another contract on Polymarket is betting on when the Iranian regime will fall. The contract has seen action worth over $7.6 million and sees a 39% probability of the regime falling by June 30.
Iran Closes Strait Of Hormuz
Iran on Monday escalated tensions after it closed the Strait of Hormuz, and said it would fire on any vessel attempting to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is an essential trading route and around one-fifth of the global oil consumption passed through the waterway last year.
Trump Warns Of ‘Big Wave’
President Donald Trump, in an interview with CNN, cautioned that a “big wave” of military action is still ahead in Iran.
Senate Backs Trump On Iran Strikes
The Senate on Wednesday backed Trump’s strikes on Iran by voting largely along party lines to block a bipartisan war powers measure that would have required Congress to authorize continued military action against Iran.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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