The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran following ballistic missile strikes by a joint U.S.-Israeli operation in Tehran over the weekend have cast major doubts over Iran allowing crude oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key trading route. Here’s what traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on.
Will Iran Close The Strait Of Hormuz?
Over 48% of the traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket on Sunday bet on Iran closing the Strait by December 31, 2026, while 43% of the traders think the closure could come sooner, by around June 30. Over 33% of the bettors placed their bets on Iran closing the trade route by the end of March.
On Kalshi, over 37% of the bettors think the Strait will be closed before 2027, while 35% and 29% of the traders think the closure could come sometime before August and May this year, respectively.
Oil Prices
Closures on the Strait of Hormuz can have a major impact on the global oil prices, as the cost of London Brent rose 5.76% to $77.06 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil prices also surged over 5.43% to $70.66 a barrel. According to a Reuters report on Sunday, over 27% of the global oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Experts have warned that any closure of the Strait could lead to oil prices surging exponentially, with analysts at ING predicting that any disruptions to the global oil supply chain could lead to prices topping $140 a barrel.
It’s worth noting that a Palau-flagged oil tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, along with two other vessels, according to officials from Oman cited by Al Jazeera on Sunday.
U.S.-Iran Conflict
The conflict comes as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following which Tehran also launched attacks on Israel, as well as U.S. assets in the region. Iran also struck targets in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and other countries.
Over 165 deaths, with several children among the casualties, reportedly occurred following an Israeli strike on a girls’ school in Iran, as per Al Jazeera, which cited Iranian State Media. In Israel’s Beit Shemesh city, an Iranian missile strike resulted in 9 deaths, as per the New York Times. Meanwhile, the U.S. also confirmed that 3 active service members died following Iranian strikes.
The strikes have been criticized by lawmakers in the U.S., with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) all slamming the Trump administration for the attacks. The two countries were in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear efforts before the strikes.
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