U.S. and Israel conducted strikes across Iran on Saturday, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other leaders. After the death of the leader, President Donald Trump warned Iran against any aggressive action.
With the U.S.-Israel and Iran continuing to conduct strikes, currently, there is no update on when the strikes will end and when the countries will agree to a ceasefire.
Prediction Market Bets On Ceasefire
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract “US x Iran ceasefire by…?”
Over $4.1 million has been bet on the contract so far.
According to bettors, April 30 has a 71% probability, up 10%, followed by March 31, with a 55% probability, after a 21% surge.
| Outcome | Probability |
| April 30 | 71% |
| March 31 | 55% |
| March 15 | 32% |
| March 6 | 11% |
Bettors are not confident about a ceasefire happening any time soon, with March 15 having a probability of 32% and March 6 having a probability of just 11%, down by 24%.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Another contract on Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, is betting on when Iran and U.S. will agree to a nuclear deal, with the “Before 2027” option having the highest probability.
Trump Warns Iran
President Donald Trump on Sunday took to Truth Social to warn Iran against taking any action against the U.S., saying “they better not do that” and saying the U.S. will hit Iran with “a force that has never been seen before” if they do.
Will Iran Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?
Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket are also betting on whether Iran will shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key trading route.
Experts have warned that any closure of the Strait could lead to oil prices surging exponentially, with analysts at ING predicting that any disruptions to the global oil supply chain could lead to prices topping $140 a barrel.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Recent Comments