Former national security adviser John Bolton said President Donald Trump’s approach to Iran reflects a shift toward regime change that could spark instability, bloodshed and global economic disruption.

Regime Change Concerns Surface

On Sunday, Bolton, sharing his Politico interview on X, said, “Trump can swing wildly on a given issue in the course of a day. He’s obviously swung from his position in the first term to regime change. He could swing back.”

In an interview, he argued Trump has “swung all the way from where he was in the first term to regime change” and warned he could “swing back” depending on circumstances.

He described Trump’s strikes as the “most consequential decision” of his presidency, but cautioned the administration may not have fully weighed the aftermath of creating a power vacuum.

Bolton warned that internal factional struggles could erupt if Iran’s leadership weakens.

“There could be a lot of turmoil, a lot of bloodshed,” he said, adding that fractures within Iran’s political and military structure could prompt defections as groups seek alignment with perceived power shifts.

He also raised concerns about the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows daily.

Bolton said Iran could attempt disruptions, including mining operations or naval actions, potentially triggering temporary shipping pauses and spikes in insurance premiums.

Trump Warns Iran After US-Israel Strikes

President Donald Trump warned Iran against retaliation after its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, threatening unprecedented force if Tehran responded.

The operation targeted Iranian leadership and military sites to weaken its nuclear and missile capabilities, triggering missile launches toward Israel and heightened alert across the Gulf.

On Saturday, Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were temporarily paused amid fears of wider disruption.

The escalation rattled energy markets, as roughly 20% of global oil supply flows through the Strait. Brent crude prices rose near $73 per barrel, with analysts warning prices could climb further if tensions disrupt supply.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported large-scale retaliatory strikes, while regional countries closed airspace amid escalating tensions.

Trump pledged to dismantle Iran’s missile infrastructure and said the operation included joint efforts with Israel to neutralize perceived threats.

The strikes also sparked domestic debate in the U.S., with lawmakers questioning the legality of the action due to the absence of congressional approval.

Some Republicans and Democrats urged Congress to reconvene and vote on military authority, raising political scrutiny over executive power and potentially testing support within Trump’s party as tensions unfold.

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