On Sunday, President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran after saying it had signaled plans to strike “very hard,” threatening a U.S. response using “A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!”
The post landed as CIA scenario planning has been circulating in Washington about what could happen inside Iran if U.S. and Israeli military action expands, with energy markets already fixated on the Strait of Hormuz and its role in moving roughly 20% of global oil supply.
In the Truth Social post, Trump wrote Iran had said it would hit harder than ever, and he urged Tehran not to follow through.
Trump added that if Iran acts, the U.S. would retaliate with unmatched strength, ending the message with “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Oil Prices
Even before Trump’s post, traders were treating Hormuz as the pressure point because Iran sits across from major Gulf producers and any escalation could snarl tanker routes.
After the strikes referenced in the intelligence briefings, some large oil producers and major trading houses paused shipments of crude and refined fuels through the corridor, tightening near-term logistics.
Brent crude ended Friday around $73 a barrel and had gained about 20% for the year heading into the weekend’s flare-up, leaving prices elevated ahead of the next market open.
In Singapore, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong told Reuters, “The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Mondays open,” while also flagging the possibility of an upside gap for gold alongside firmer oil.
Could Irans Actions Trigger Global Inflation?
Capital Economics economist William Jackson outlined a wide range of possible oil outcomes tied to how far any disruption spreads, including a move toward $80 even if fighting stays contained.
Jackson also wrote that a more serious supply shock could lift Brent toward $100.
Jackson estimated that if supply damage lingers, the inflation hit could be roughly 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points globally, a scenario that would complicate decision-making for central banks still dealing with stubborn price pressures.
That inflation math is one reason energy desks have been quick to price in risk around Hormuz, where any interference can ripple through fuel costs and freight rates.
Flight Cancellations Amplify Market Turbulence
The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to significant disruptions in air travel across the Middle East, with multiple air corridors closing after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. This chaos has resulted in over 700 flight cancellations at Dubai International Airport alone, impacting numerous airlines including Emirates, which temporarily halted flights in and out of the city, as well as United Airlines, which diverted planes headed for Tel Aviv and Dubai.
This escalation in military actions and travel restrictions may further influence market dynamics, as traders are already factoring in heightened risks associated with oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude flows, as noted in a recent travel chaos report.
How U.S. Intelligence Assesses Irans Future
U.S. intelligence work drafted over the past two weeks mapped multiple post-intervention paths for Iran rather than naming a single most likely outcome, according to people briefed on the assessments.
One scenario described IRGC-aligned figures consolidating control even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were removed, keeping the security establishment at the center of the state.
Separately, Khamenei has elevated Ali Larijani into a crisis-management role, including leadership of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council as the country prepares for possible conflict.
In the lead-up to the planned U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran, American intelligence officials identified what they considered a high-value target: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reported The New York Times.
People familiar with the matter told the NYT, the CIA had spent months monitoring Khamenei’s movements, steadily refining its understanding of his routines and likely whereabouts. That effort intensified after intelligence indicated that senior Iranian leaders were scheduled to convene at a central Tehran compound on Saturday morning — and that Khamenei himself was expected to attend.
Armed with the updated information, U.S. and Israeli officials altered the timing of the operation to align with the new intelligence, sources said.
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