On Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency weighed scenarios in which the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could still leave the country led by hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figures even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were removed, according to people briefed on the intelligence.
That risk is colliding with immediate market concerns after the assault jolted energy trading and put the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil supply moves—at the center of oil supply fears.
As per Reuters, the CIA’s work product, drafted over the past two weeks, did not pick a single outcome as most likely and instead mapped multiple paths for Iran after a U.S. intervention.
One of those paths, people familiar with the assessments said, involved IRGC-linked figures stepping into power, a shift that would keep Iran’s security apparatus at the core of the state.
Energy Markets Brace For Supply Disruption
Oil traders were already focused on the chokepoint risk because Iran sits opposite key Gulf producers at Hormuz, and any widening conflict could interrupt tanker traffic.
Some large oil companies and major trading firms paused crude and refined-product movements through the corridor after the strikes, tightening near-term supply logistics.
Brent crude settled near $73 a barrel on Friday and was up about 20% for the year before the weekend escalation, leaving prices elevated heading into the next trading sessions.
Capital Economics economist William Jackson wrote that even if fighting stays limited, Brent could drift toward $80, while a more severe disruption could push it toward $100.
Jackson also estimated a prolonged supply hit could add roughly 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation, a concern for central banks already watching sticky price pressures.
In Singapore, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong told Reuters, The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Mondays open, and he flagged potential upside gaps for gold alongside firmer oil.
Could Military Strikes Ignite A Regime Change?
The CIA’s scenario planning examined how military action might—or might not—translate into leadership change inside the Islamic Republic, with the IRGC viewed as a potential beneficiary of turmoil.
As reported by Reuters, the agency’s analysis was shared in the run-up to Saturday’s operation and was framed as a range of possibilities rather than a forecast.
Donald Trump has publicly signaled interest in a different government in Tehran, while not laying out who Washington sees as a viable successor leadership.
Inside the U.S. government, the decision to strike followed weeks of debate after deadly protests that erupted in Iran in December.
U.S. officials also pursued nuclear diplomacy in parallel, but talks in Geneva did not produce an agreement.
During a briefing to the congressional “Gang of Eight” last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that an operation was probable, while emphasizing that Trump retained the option to step back should negotiations prove successful.
As per the outlet, two people familiar with the matter said Rubio updated the group again on Friday night, signaling the attack could begin within hours even as Trump retained discretion to halt it.
Strategic Leadership Shift Amid Rising Tensions
This context is underscored by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s recent elevation of Ali Larijani to a de facto crisis manager role, as Iran prepares for potential conflict with the U.S., which has raised the stakes for negotiations surrounding a nuclear deal.
With President Donald Trump issuing a 10-to-15-day ultimatum for a resolution, heightened military readiness and internal governance strategies are being employed to maintain stability amid escalating tensions.
Larijani’s new position as head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which includes directing crackdowns on dissent and coordinating with international allies, reflects a significant shift in leadership dynamics that could influence Iran’s response to U.S. military actions.
This backdrop amplifies the geopolitical risk for energy markets, particularly as oil prices surge on fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route.
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