Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares tumbled after what analysts called a blowout fourth quarter, but for Lawrence McDonald, the headline wasn’t the story — the market’s reaction was.
McDonald Invokes the Dot-Com Playbook
Writing on X on Thursday, McDonald founder of The Bear Traps Report flagged an uncomfortable pattern. “Off 5% on the ‘blowout quarter’ — anyone that lived through the dotcom bust will tell you, the Nasdaq puked lower in March 2000 on great news. It’s NOT the headline, it’s the market’s response that matters,” he posted.
He added a blunt follow-up: “Stocks down on good news, always remember.”
McDonald had earlier noted that Nvidia had gone nowhere for months despite hard assets surging. “Nvidia $NVDA unchanged since October with hard assets ripping higher – up 1% after the close, Lord pump master is losing his touch :)” he wrote.
The March 2000 Blueprint
McDonald’s reference point is specific. The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048.62 on Friday, March 10, 2000, before ultimately surrendering all its gains by October 2002.
Bears Are Circling
McDonald isn’t alone. Noted contrarian investor Michael Burry — who famously profited from the 2008 housing collapse and was later immortalized in The Big Short — flagged Nvidia’s purchase obligations surging to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion a year ago, drawing a direct parallel to Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) in 2000. “This is not business as usual. This is risk,” Burry wrote in a recent Substack newsletter.
Bulls Hold Their Ground
Not everyone is convinced. Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider reiterated a Buy rating and a $250 price forecast Thursday, saying Nvidia has a “clearer path” to outperform. “We see Nvidia accelerating its growth profile in 2026 while maintaining a competitive edge in the market,” Schneider said.
Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion — a 73% year-over-year jump — with first-quarter guidance of $78 billion blowing past Street consensus of $72 billion.
Price Action
Nvidia shares fell 5.46% on Thursday to close at $184.89. The weakness extended into Friday’s premarket session, with shares dipping another 0.54% to $183.89, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image via Shutterstock
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