President Donald Trump will deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday at 9 PM E.T., amid tariff whiplash, Iran tensions that can jolt oil prices, and a stubborn affordability debate that still drives interest-rate expectations.
Tariff Pivot After Supreme Court Ruling
The Supreme Court recently ruled Trump’s emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act illegal, forcing the administration to pivot. US Customs and Border Protection began collecting a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, while Trump has publicly pushed to raise it to 15%, but Reuters reported on Tuesday that the CBP needs a signed order to collect more.
The market is pricing in a refund fight. Companies have filed a growing wave of lawsuits seeking tariff refunds, and Reuters reported that traders have bid up “tariff refund claim” rights after the ruling, even though the court did not order refunds.
Oil Markets Watch Iran And Hormuz Risk
Meanwhile, the price of oil has moved on diplomacy and military posture. Reuters reported Brent settled at $70.77 a barrel and US crude at $65.63 on Tuesday as traders watched US-Iran talks and a larger American presence in the region. A rhetoric that widens the risk premium tied to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint, could be a key factor to watch out for.
Inflation, Rates, And The Affordability Pitch
An Associated Press report on Tuesday claimed that Trump plans to emphasize the economy and ease voter concerns through his address. The latest US CPI showed prices up 2.4% over the 12 months ending January, while core CPI rose 2.5%, keeping attention on the path of rate cuts.
Prediction-market traders are placing their bets on Polymarket. They expect Trump to lean hard on patriotic language, repeatedly say “America,” and cite economic figures in the billions or trillions. Traders also give high odds that he will mention energy, the border, and geopolitical tensions, signaling that they expect him to fuse economic messaging with national security themes.
Ahead of Trump’s speech, U.S. stock futures edged lower Tuesday night, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.05% to 6,900, Nasdaq futures dipping 0.01% to 25,025, and Dow Jones futures declining 0.07% to 49,202.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading flat at 97.85, and is now down 0.45% for the year so far. As per Reuters, ING on Monday said the dollar has lost part of its safe-haven appeal since 2024 after the dollar index fell nearly 10% last year, as erratic trade policy, Trump’s tariff threats and attacks on the Federal Reserve weighed on the currency. The bank still sees no broad deterioration in global demand but warned that any perception the Fed cuts rates inappropriately could trigger “a run on the dollar.”
Image via Shutterstock/ Joey Sussman
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