A new note published Sunday by Citrini Research poses a provocative question: What if the AI boom that has powered Wall Street’s rally is simultaneously hollowing out the consumer economy that underpins it?
The piece — framed explicitly as a “thought exercise” and scenario, not a prediction — imagines a hypothetical “Global Intelligence Crisis” written from the vantage point of June 2028.
Its core warning is that white-collar displacement from companies like Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) could create a cascading labor compression that hits ride-hailing platforms like Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) from an unexpected direction: too much supply.
The Salesforce-to-Uber Pipeline
Citrini’s scenario illustrates the mechanism through a specific example. A former senior product manager at Salesforce who earned $180,000 annually, after failing to find comparable work, turned to driving for Uber at roughly $45,000 per year.
“Multiply this dynamic by a few hundred thousand workers across every major metro,” the authors write. “Overqualified labor flooding the service and gig economy pushed down wages for existing workers who were already struggling.”
From SaaS Disruption to Systemic Risk
The Citrini note argues that the market’s tendency to treat AI’s labor impact as a “sector story” misses the macro picture. White-collar workers, the authors contend, represent roughly 50% of U.S. employment and drive approximately 75% of discretionary consumer spending — making them, in effect, the engine of the entire economy.
The scenario envisions a reflexive feedback loop: AI capability improves, companies cut payroll, displaced workers earn less, consumer spending falls, margin-squeezed firms invest more in AI, and the cycle repeats with no natural brake.
For Uber, the scenario creates a double bind: an initial surge in driver supply — and thus wage compression — followed later by autonomous vehicle proliferation eliminating the gig layer entirely.
The Punchline: It’s February 2026, Not 2028
Citrini closes with a pointed reminder. “You’re not reading this in June 2028,” the authors write. “You’re reading it in February 2026. The S&P is near all-time highs. The negative feedback loops have not begun.”
Profit_Image from Shutterstock
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