After chatter swirled online over comments from former President Barack Obama about aliens being “real”, President Donald Trump fired off a Truth Social post late Thursday promising to direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on extraterrestrials, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs).
Trump made the declaration after he accused Obama earlier in the day of revealing classified information when the former president said “aliens are real” on a podcast last week.
“He’s not supposed to be doing that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
When asked if he also thinks aliens are real, Trump said: “Well, I don’t know if they’re real or not.”
Declassification Or Déjà Vu?
For long-time Trump watchers, comments on extraterrestrial life are not new.
During his first term, Trump acknowledged being briefed on UFO sightings by Navy pilots and said, “I want them to think whatever they think.”
Former U.S. Presidents have flirted with UFO transparency before. Bill Clinton has admitted that he sent federal agents to find out if aliens were hiding out at Nevada’s so-called Area 51.
However, in a 2024 report, the Pentagon said there was “no evidence” that the U.S. government had encountered alien life, and that most UFO sightings were just ordinary objects.
Prediction Market Alien Odds Climb
Traders in prediction markets focused on “alien disclosure” have remained skeptical so far, citing a lack of concrete policy movement or verifiable evidence. But Trump’s Thursday remarks moved the needle to some extent.
On Polymarket, the contract “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” saw its implied probability climb from roughly 11% to the low-20s in the hours after Trump’s announcement, with total trading volume approaching well over $4.3 million.
Contracts on Kalshi also saw a similar uptick. The odds of the U.S. confirming aliens before 2027 jumped from 17.3% on Feb. 19 to 28.4% at last check, with trading volume at $4.8 million.
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