In November 2025, President Donald Trump promised that Americans would receive a dividend of “at least $2,000 a person,” funded by U.S. tariff revenues.
Cost Vs. Tariffs Collected
While analysis from the Tax Foundation shows a massive gap between the estimated cost of this dividend and the tariffs collected, Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), is “pretty sure” there’s enough room for such a payment.
Congressional Approval Not Necessary, Says Trump
When asked if the tariff dividend checks needed any approval, Trump said, “I believe we can do that without Congress.” In contrast, Hassett had earlier said that checks would “depend on what happens with Congress.”
Here’s What Prediction Market Thinks
Like most things these days, the prediction market has something to say about the checks.
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $2.4 million has been bet on the contract “Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?”
Several options have been listed on the contract, out of which two have already resolved to “No”— “Before 2026” and “Before February”.
The “Before March” option has a 1% probability as per the bettors, while the “Before April”, “Before May” and “Before June” options have 3%, 4% and 7% probability, respectively.
The “Before 2027” option has the highest probability at 32%, with 69% probability for “No”.
This indicates that the prediction market is not very confident about Trump issuing tariff stimulus checks.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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