A seemingly offhand comment from former U.S. President Barack Obama that “aliens are real” briefly lit up social media and market chatter, but prediction markets aren’t pricing in an imminent disclosure of extraterrestrial life — at least not yet.
Obama’s Statement Sparks Frenzy
Obama’s remark came during a rapid-fire podcast interview with Brian Tyler Cohen published on Saturday, where he said the existence of alien life is likely given the vastness of the universe, but stressed he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency and dismissed conspiracy theories about facilities like Area 51.
“They’re real but I haven’t seen them,” Obama said.
The comment quickly circulated online and was picked up by major outlets, prompting a clarification from the former president on his official Instagram account on Sunday.
Prediction Markets Play It Cool
Despite the buzz, traders in prediction markets focused on “alien disclosure” have remained skeptical, citing a lack of concrete policy movement or verifiable evidence. Markets barely budged following Obama’s interview, suggesting investors view the remarks as speculative rather than indicative of classified revelations.
On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the U.S. will confirm aliens exist before 2027 continues to imply roughly one-in-ten odds, even after the latest headlines, with over $2.3 million in cumulative volume signaling sustained but skeptical interest.
Meanwhile, federally regulated exchange Kalshi shows similar sentiment, with “Yes” contracts trading well below 20 cents on the dollar, underscoring that traders see official disclosure as unlikely in the near term.
On both platforms, the market specifies that it will resolve positively only if the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by Dec. 31, 2026, or before Jan. 1, 2027.
Image via Shutterstock
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