Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) has pulled back 50% from its peak, but volatility has also declined sharply from prior cycles, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research.
50% Price Drop, Lower Volatility
Speaking on CNBC’s Market Alert on Friday, Sigel described the current correction as significant but structurally different from past bear markets.
“There is no CEO of Bitcoin, there will be no bailout,” Sigel said, noting that regulatory uncertainty, including delays around the Clarity Act, may have contributed to selling pressure.
He added that market jitters intensified following disclosures that members of the Trump family sold part of their stake in World Liberty Financial.
Despite the 50% price decline, Sigel emphasized that realized volatility has also dropped about 50% compared with the 2022 correction, when Bitcoin plunged roughly 80%.
Based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, he argued that the 2022 bear market has already passed and the current period represents a typical down year within a broader cycle.
13 Countries Mining BTC
Addressing whether Bitcoin remains necessary in a world increasingly focused on regulated stablecoins, Sigel said BTC plays a crucial role for individuals in high-inflation economies or those lacking access to U.S. dollars.
He added that some countries with excess energy capacity are allocating a portion of that supply to mine Bitcoin, strengthening monetary sovereignty.
According to Sigel, “13 different countries” are currently mining Bitcoin at the central government level.
Sigel also noted that leverage in Bitcoin markets is relatively low compared with other asset classes, as institutional adoption has expanded across Wall Street.
He said that trend has supported VanEck’s growth in the digital asset space.
While prices remain under pressure, Sigel’s thesis suggests the structural backdrop for Bitcoin may be stronger, and less volatile, than in previous downturns.
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