Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer called Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) $60,000 low the cycle bottom, predicting a new bull market will begin after “a few months of backing and filling” as BTC trades around $67,589.
The Bottom Call
Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, said Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 last week fulfilled the support zone he predicted months ago when he wrote the four-year cycle bull market had ended.
“It’s anyone’s guess whether $60,000 is the low, but my guess is that it is, and that after a few months of backing and filling the next cyclical bull market will get underway,” Timmer wrote on X.
He pointed to pattern recognition as the basis for optimism. “Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles, my sense is that any future waves could eventually take us to new highs.”
The Shallow Winter Argument
Timmer argued the decline to “only” $60,000 is relatively shallow for a Bitcoin winter, showing the asset is maturing.
As Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized, volatility dampens and swings become less dramatic.
In earlier analysis, Timmer noted the October high of $125,000 after 145 weeks of rallying “fits pretty well with what one might expect” based on past four-year cycles.
He predicted subsequent bear markets tend to last about one year, making 2026 an “off year” with support in the $65,000-$75,000 range.
The previous bull cycle has officially concluded, according to Timmer, with a consolidation period now underway before the next accumulation phase sets the stage for a new bull run.
The Gold Divergence
Timmer observed a stark divergence between Bitcoin and gold during recent volatility. Bitcoin caved to heavy liquidation pressure while gold “held in like a champ.”
“While both silver and Bitcoin took it on the chin last week (at least until Friday), gold held in like a champ,” Timmer wrote, highlighting physical gold’s performance as a safe-haven asset during the liquidity crunch.
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