A sizable downward revision to U.S. payrolls could be coming, according to Bloomberg’s Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong, as investors brace for a jobs report that may significantly reshape the labor market narrative.
In a post on X on Tuesday, Wong said she expects roughly 666,000 jobs to be cut from the March 2025 payroll level in the upcoming benchmark revision, a key annual update that resets the employment data using more complete government records.
Reset May Wipe Out Much Of 2025 Job growth
The Labor Department’s annual benchmark revision, tied to March data, is widely expected to show that employment growth was far weaker than previously reported. Economists anticipate a downgrade of roughly 750,000 to 900,000 jobs for the year through March 2025, compared with earlier estimates, according to Reuters.
Preliminary figures released last year by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which compiles the data, suggested a record cut of about 911,000 jobs over that period, raising questions about the strength of the labor market during 2025.
December Level Could show Even Deeper Shortfall
Beyond the March benchmark, economists are also watching revisions to the rest of 2025, which will adjust the job totals through December.
Wong suggested the combined impact of the benchmark and subsequent revisions could erase as many as one million jobs from the year-end level.
That would reinforce the picture of a labor market that slowed sharply in 2025, with December job gains of only about 50,000, capping a year of muted hiring.
The revisions are due alongside the January employment report on Wednesday, which economists expect to show modest job growth and an unemployment rate around 4.4%. The report, initially due last Friday, was delayed by the three-day shutdown of the federal government.
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