Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) stock is trading higher on Tuesday. The company plans to announce financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.
JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated the Overweight rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $180.
Smith said key watch items include first-quarter volume, profit, cash-flow guidance, and commentary on growth and expenses.
The analyst also flagged agentic commerce adoption and European Shop Pay growth as important areas to monitor.
Smith said e-commerce payment volumes slowed due to tough comparisons, with Street estimates implying further GMV and GPV deceleration.
JP Morgan projects Shopify to post fourth-quarter revenues of $3.557 billion (+26% year over year), with adjusted earnings per share of 53 cents.
Execution And Near-Term Expectations
According to the analyst, Shopify continues to execute well, with January spend trends showing acceleration despite broader software weakness.
Smith said solid fourth-quarter results are expected, with positioning supportive of guidance above Street first-quarter expectations.
The analyst cautioned that earnings upside alone may not overcome negative sentiment across software and payments stocks.
Product Momentum And Adoption Trends
The analyst noted that Black Friday–Cyber Monday sales rose sharply, broadly matching Street GMV expectations while trailing GPV estimates slightly.
The company’s buy-side expectations point to low-30% GMV growth and modest beats on revenue and gross profit.
Smith said investors want first-quarter guidance matching fourth-quarter strength, including healthy revenue, profit growth, and margin expansion.
Shopify shares have fallen sharply year to date amid a broader pullback in software and payments.
The analyst said Shop Pay adoption increased modestly among top U.S. merchants based on January checkout tests.
Smith noted Shopify enabled in-chat purchasing across major AI platforms, potentially expanding merchant reach despite added transaction fees.
The analyst said new AI-driven product upgrades, including Sidekick enhancements, offer long-term monetization not reflected in estimates.
SHOP Price Action: Shopify shares were up 7.07% at $126.77 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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