Is Nasdaq-100 Headed Towards A Correction By 2026 End? Here’s What Kalshi Bettors Think

by | Feb 10, 2026 | General

Traders on Wall Street’s favorite prediction platform Kalshi are betting on a correction in the Nasdaq-100 by the end of 2026.

The forecast diverges from the Nasdaq’s current level of 25,268.14, up 16.14% year-to-date, despite 18% of traders betting on a pullback with the index potentially reaching 18,999.99 or below.

Only 4% of the traders bet on the index closing between 19,000 and 19,499.99.

February’s Tech Sell-Off Explained

The Kalshi prediction could be based on the recent tech sell-off, with the Nasdaq comprising leading technology companies.

February is shaping up to be the tech sector’s weakest month in nearly a year, led by a sharp selloff in software stocks amid valuation concerns and worries over hyperscaler spending and earnings durability.

While the pullback has unsettled investors, it closely matches historical seasonal patterns, with February historically one of the most challenging months for tech stocks, posting below-average returns and a near-even split between gains and losses since the launch of the Nasdaq 100 in 1985, highlighted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group LLC.

Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said Wall Street is treating major software stocks like Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM), ServiceNow Inc (NYSE:NOW) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as if they are obsolete in the AI era, calling the current sell-off unprecedented, while arguing the declines are “overdone” and that these companies will remain key players in the AI revolution.

Kalshi’s Nasdaq Call Vs Broader Bull Run

The Nasdaq-100 forecast on Kalshi is in sharp contrast to its predictions over the S&P 500. In January, Kalshi traders predicted that the S&P 500 could soar to unprecedented levels by the end of the year. This aligned with the outlook of Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, who reiterated his bullish call for the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 by the end of 2026.

The market’s performance reflects a confluence of factors, with trade policies, AI outlook, and broader geopolitical concerns playing key roles. President Donald Trump celebrated the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing above 50,000 for the first time on Friday, crediting his administration’s trade policies, and predicted the index would reach 100,000 before the end of his term.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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