A wave of political change is sweeping the globe. As we move through 2026, many of the world’s biggest leaders are either packing their bags or fighting for their political lives.
For Viktor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Ali Khamenei, the year 2026 isn’t just another year in office—it is a fight for their political survival.
Here’s What The Prediction Market Is Betting On
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $4.3 million has been bet on the contract “World leaders out before 2027?”
Orbán Faces The Heat After 16 Years
Hungary’s Orbán has been in power for nearly 16 years now and faces his most difficult election in April 2026. Prediction markets have placed a 55% probability that Orban will be out before 2027.
Israel’s Netanyahu, who has been at the helm for over 18 years across various terms, is part of a fragile coalition ahead of elections scheduled for November 2026. Prediction markets have placed a 51% probability of Netanyahu being out before 2027, up by 6%.
Iran Faces Protests, US Threats
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei currently faces both internal and external threats. There have been protests in Iran against the current regime since December, which have escalated.
Donald Trump is reportedly considering targeted strikes on senior figures to “inspire” demonstrators. Bettors have placed a 52% probability that Khamenei will be out before 2027.
All three leaders currently face a 50% probability of being removed, either in elections, weak coalitions or other issues.
Xi Jinping’s Military Purge
Apart from these leaders, prediction markets are also betting on whether Xi Jinping will be removed amid the military purge in China. While the probability of Xi being removed is around 9%, over $5.8 million have been bet on the contract so far.
Photo courtesy: paparazzza on Shutterstock.com
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