Iran’s leadership is increasingly worried that a US military strike could shatter its hold on power by driving an already enraged public back onto the streets after a bloody protest crackdown, according to six current and former officials familiar with internal deliberations.
Officials Warn Fear No Longer Deters Protesters Nationwide
In a series of high-level meetings in recent days, senior security and political officials warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that anger over last month’s repression, described by rights groups as the bloodiest unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has reached a point where fear “is no longer a deterrent,” four current officials told Reuters.
Those officials said Khamenei was told many Iranians are prepared to confront security forces again, and that external pressure such as a limited US strike could embolden them and cause “irreparable damage” to the ruling system.
One official said Iran’s adversaries “are seeking more protests so as to bring the Islamic Republic to an end,” adding that “unfortunately there would be more violence if an uprising took place.”
Private Misgivings Clash With Tehran’s Defiant Rhetoric
The reported private warnings contrast sharply with Tehran’s public defiance toward both protesters and Washington.
The concerns surface as President Donald Trump weighs options that include targeted strikes on Iranian security units and senior figures to “inspire” demonstrators, even as Israeli and Arab officials argue air power alone would not topple the clerical establishment. The recent arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and supporting warships in Middle Eastern waters has expanded Trump’s ability to act if he chooses.
US Strike Risks Sparking Angrier, Bolder Uprising
Any renewed uprising after a US attack would differ from the Iranians’ reaction to Israeli and US strikes on nuclear facilities last June, which were not followed by mass demonstrations.
A former senior moderate official told Reuters the January crackdown, which a UN expert and the US-based HRANA group say killed thousands, has transformed the public mood. “People are extremely angry,” he said, adding that a US strike could bring Iranians back into the streets. “The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left.”
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