Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) are in “crypto winter”, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who says the end may be closer than investors think.
The Hidden Winter
Hougan argues crypto entered winter in January 2025, but ETF and Digital Asset Treasury flows masked the reality for months.
The institutional support was massive—ETFs and DATs bought 744,417 Bitcoin during 2025, worth roughly $75 billion.
Without this buying pressure, Hougan estimates Bitcoin would be down around 60%.
Assets with ETF support—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP)—fell only 10%-20% in 2025.
Meanwhile, assets without institutional backing like Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA), Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX), Sui (CRYPTO: SUI), and Polkadot (CRYPTO: DOT) crashed 62%-75%.
The thesis is clear: Retail crypto has been in brutal winter since January 2025. Institutions simply papered over that reality for certain assets temporarily.
Why Good News Doesn’t Matter
Hougan pointed why crypto prices keep falling despite positive developments in regulation and institutional adoption.
Good news gets ignored in bear markets but doesn’t disappear—it builds as potential energy.
Crypto winters don’t end in excitement. They end in exhaustion, despair, and malaise.
The current environment mirrors the end stages of previous winters in 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed December 2018.
It peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.
If the winter started January 2025, we’re already 13 months in—suggesting the bottom could arrive soon rather than waiting until late 2026.
What Could End The Winter
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits near all-time high levels of fear, which typically marks late-stage winter conditions.
Strong economic growth sparking risk-on rallies, positive surprises on the Clarity Act, signs of sovereign Bitcoin adoption, or simply the passage of time could rekindle a rally.
Image: Shutterstock
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