Users of the Polymarket prediction market have placed bets amounting to tens of millions of dollars on the potential timeline for a US strike on Iran, with current odds expecting a winter or spring strike.
Polymarket users have been speculating on the possibility of a US strike on Iran. Over the past few months, the platform has seen tens of millions of dollars change hands as the speculated dates for the strikes have come and gone.
Additional millions have been wagered on the potential removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The odds for an airstrike by June 30 are currently the highest, standing at 61 percent.
Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets globally, gives users the ability to fund event contracts using cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards, and bank transfers.
The commercial use of prediction markets has seen a recent surge, with people placing bets on an ever-expanding list of future events.
However, despite some traders making significant profits, losses are a daily occurrence. Allegations of manipulation and insider trading have also been levelled against the platform.
According to reports, last month, a trader placed bids just hours before US President Donald Trump announced a surprise raid resulting in the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
This sparked online speculation of potential insider trading due to the timing of the bets and the trader’s limited activity on the platform.
Why It Matters: The surge in betting on Polymarket underscores the growing popularity of prediction markets. However, the allegations of manipulation and insider trading raise serious concerns about the platform’s integrity and transparency.
These issues, if not addressed, could potentially undermine the credibility of Polymarket and other similar platforms, affecting their growth and acceptance in the long run.
Image: Shutterstock/Miha Creative
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