Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 8% on the week, with historical cycle analysis suggesting further downside ahead, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Cycle Timing Driving Bitcoin Weakness
Bitcoin has weakened not because its long-term thesis is broken, but due to cycle timing, tightening liquidity and repeating historical patterns, Cowen said in his latest podcast.
Cowen said the current downturn is unfolding almost exactly when Bitcoin has rolled over in prior cycles.
He believes the cycle peaked in October 2025 at day 1,462, a point that sits roughly between the lengths of the previous two Bitcoin cycles.
He noted that every major Bitcoin bear market has begun in Q4 of the post-halving year: 2013, 2017, 2021 and now 2025, suggesting the latest decline follows a recurring structural rhythm.
As Cowen put it, Bitcoin is falling “because this is when it always drops.”
Global Liquidity Remains The Key Driver
Cowen compared the current setup most closely to 2019, the only prior cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoric excess.
In both periods, there was no meaningful altcoin rotation, and price action formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
He added that both cycle tops coincided with Federal Reserve balance sheet contraction, reinforcing his view that global liquidity, not M2 money supply, is the dominant force behind Bitcoin’s price action.
Cowen focuses on net global liquidity across major central banks, adjusted for reverse repo usage and Treasury balances.
He expects Bitcoin to continue underperforming equities until stock markets weaken, prompting central banks to respond with renewed liquidity that could eventually support crypto.
What’s Next For BTC
Cowen expects Bitcoin to revisit its 200-week moving average, a level historically tested during major downturns.
Using Strategy as a proxy for Bitcoin’s cycle behavior, he noted it took roughly 98 weeks to bottom after its 2021 peak.
Applying a similar timeline to the October 2025 top points to a potential cycle low around October 2026, aligning with the typical one-year duration of past Bitcoin bear markets.
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