Prediction markets are assigning a moderately high possibility that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will leave the Trump administration this year.
Bets Are On: Noem’s Departure Gains Momentum
Polymarket bettors have placed 56% odds on Noem’s departure, the highest, followed by Attorney General Pamela Bondi at 50%. Noem’s odds have increased by 12 percentage points since the year began.
A separate betting market gives Noem a 39% chance of being the first to exit the Trump administration, up from just 13% at the beginning of the year.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
On Kalshi, traders see a 46% likelihood that Noem departs before July 1, while a 30% chance she’s out before March 1.
Impeachment Threat Looms
These odds rise as Democratic lawmakers demand Noem’s resignation after a DHS agent fatally shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, during Minneapolis protests.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) warned Democrats would commence impeachment proceedings against Noem if Trump doesn’t fire her “immediately.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who has praised Trump’s anti-immigration policies, accused Noem of “betraying” DHS’s core mission.”
Noem defended the shooting, calling Pretti an armed suspect who “violently resisted” when officers tried to disarm him.
Noem, who has been spearheading President Donald Trump’s deportation efforts, has also faced internal conflicts within the administration.
Reports have suggested a strained relationship between Noem and Tom Homan, the White House border czar, who Trump dispatched to Minneapolis after the deadly shooting of two U.S. citizens.
Noem served in the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2019 and as the Governor of South Dakota from 2019 to 2025.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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