Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is oscillating around $90,000 as spot Bitcoin ETFs face heavy outflows, prompting speculation about a possible downward spiral.
BTC Holds Firm Despite ETF Stress
CryptoQuant noted that $87,000 is close to the average cost basis for ETF investors at $86,600 and has become a critical psychological pivot.
Holding above this price supports investor confidence and helps stabilize flows.
A sustained move below it may risk accelerating redemptions as the remaining profit buffer disappears and breakeven turns into losses.
Since peaking at $72.6 billion in cumulative inflows in October 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $6.1 billion in net outflows.
Total holdings have declined to $66.5 billion, an 8.4% drawdown, marking the first meaningful stress test for ETF investors since the products were approved.
Focus On ETF Realized Price
Despite the scale of outflows, the ETF realized price has remained relatively stable and continues to trend higher.
This suggests that selling pressure has largely come from weaker hands, late-cycle or trading-oriented capital, rather than long-term holders.
At current levels, the market isn’t debating trend direction as much as investor behaviour.
If Bitcoin holds above the ETF realized price, ETF investors are more likely to remain patient, and flows may continue to consolidate.
A decisive break below it, however, could shift the regime from consolidation into active distribution.
Image: Shutterstock
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