The U.S. government recorded its longest shutdown in history in November 2025, lasting 43 days. Just two months later, another shutdown is looming, with President Donald Trump saying, “We’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
Trump predicted the possibility of a shutdown on Thursday and the odds of a shutdown increased drastically after Senate Democrats announced their intention to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) following a fatal shooting in Minneapolis on Saturday morning involving U.S. Border Patrol agents.
Prediction Market Is Betting On A Shutdown
The Prediction Market is expecting a shutdown on Sat., Jan. 31. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $8 million has been bet on the contract “Government shutdown on Saturday?”
At the time of writing, there was a 76.8% probability of a shutdown as per bettors on Kalshi, up by 38.4%.
The probability that there won’t be a shutdown was around just 24%.
Chuck Schumer Calls To Move Funding Package
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called on Senate Republicans to move the government funding package while removing funding for the DHS to avoid a partial government shutdown, as per a report by The Hill.
Schumer reiterated that the Senate Democrats will “not allow” the current DHS funding bill to pass.
Meanwhile, he called on both sides to work together to pass the other five funding bills.
Multiple Senate Democrats who previously voted to reopen the government have now joined the opposition to the DHS funding bill.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), during an interview with NBC News, said that they will not vote for the DHS funding bill.
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