Prediction markets are betting actively on snowfall totals in major cities amid a brutal winter storm that has led to widespread power outages and grounded thousands of flights.
How Much Snow Will NYC Really See?
On Polymarket, more than $700,000 has been wagered on a market predicting how many inches of snow New York City will receive during the weekend.
As of this writing, punters see a 47% chance that total snowfall falls between 10 and 12 inches. The resolution source for this market will be the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In Washington, D.C., a similar contract showed bettors assigning the highest odds, at 56%, to an outcome of 5–7 inches of snowfall in the federal capital.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
Meanwhile, bettors on Kalshi saw a 98% likelihood that the total snowfall in NYC would exceed 10 inches. Roughly $3.7 million has been wagered on the outcome.
The Ethical Question
The platform got some flak in the past for allowing people to profit from natural disasters. When pressed on the issue in an interview, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan admitted it was a “sensitive” matter.
Unprecedented Travel Disruptions
The bets come as the blizzard paralyzed normal life, knocking out power for tens of thousands of customers and leading to the most flight cancellations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to data from FlightAware, over 12,000 flights were canceled and over 20,000 were delayed nationwide on Sunday.
President Donald Trump declared federal emergency disaster declarations in several states, including South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, among others.
Forecasters predict snow, sleet, and freezing rain will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the country from Sunday into the following week.
Photo Courtesy: nyker on Shutterstock.com
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