Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) are expected to report earnings results on January 29.
JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang says that the spending data indicate only a slight slowdown in the fourth quarter, and given the tough year-over-year comparison, this suggests that the domestic consumer remains healthy.
Last week, President Donald Trump posted on social media encouraging support for the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA). The analyst writes that headlines around CCCA have fueled cautious sentiment, but any impact is likely manageable over the long term.
The analyst argues that CCCA is unlikely to gain traction because it offers no clear material benefit to consumers or merchants relative to the operational burden.
Even if implemented, the analyst expects Visa and Mastercard to manage the changes with only a modest, long-term economic impact.
Huang remains fundamentally constructive on the networks, modestly favoring Visa while viewing both Visa and Mastercard positively.
Mastercard Estimates
The analyst estimates fourth-quarter revenue of $8.72 billion versus the consensus of $8.78 billion and EPS of $4.20 (versus the street view of $4.25). For 2025, Huang expects revenue of $32.71 billion (versus consensus of $32.78 billion) and EPS of $16.45 (in line with the street view).
The analyst estimates are about 1% below consensus for both revenue and EPS, likely due to intra-quarter FX revisions.
Meanwhile, the analysts’ estimates are slightly below Street expectations for U.S. volume growth in the fourth quarter, reflecting roughly 240 bps of deceleration from the partial Capital One conversion, though underlying spending trends remain generally stable.
For fiscal 2026, Huang expects Mastercard to guide toward the high end of low-double-digit FX-neutral/organic revenue growth (JPMe +12%).
Projections For Visa
The analyst estimates net revenues of $10.67 billion (versus consensus of $10.68 billion) and EPS of $3.12 (versus street view of $3.13) for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
For fiscal 2026, Huang sees revenue of $44.76 billion (versus consensus of $44.45 billion) and EPS of $12.87 (versus street view of $12.80).
The analyst estimates are in line with Street expectations for the first-quarter revenue and EPS, but are roughly 1 percentage point ahead for fiscal 2026, partly due to FX, which adds about 50 bps versus prior assumptions.
Huang anticipates near-term fundamentals to remain constructive, supported by early January volume acceleration and second-half growth driven in part by tokenization service pricing.
Combined with attractive valuation relative to the market and Visa’s history, the analyst sees a favorable risk-reward heading into the quarter and throughout 2026.
Price Action: Mastercard shares were down 1.38% at $525.50 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Visa shares were up 0.17%.
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