Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been trading in a range for two months, with traders left wondering in what direction the next impulse move will come.
Is BTC Repeating A 2022 Pattern?
Cycle analyst Cryptollica challenges the bear market narrative by looking beyond crypto-native history and comparing Bitcoin to long-term macro assets.
Drawing on Mark Twain’s idea that history “rhymes,” the analysis highlights a striking fractal similarity between Bitcoin’s price evolution since 2008 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 during its 1950–1990 economic expansion.
Both assets appear to follow a four-cycle structure, with the possibility of entering a fifth, hyper-growth phase.
According to Cryptollica, Bitcoin is currently positioned at a technical level like where the Nikkei stood in the mid-1980s, just before a powerful parabolic run.
While critics point to Bitcoin’s break below the 50-day moving average as a classic bear signal, the analysis argues this is a trap rather than a top, suggesting this cycle is structurally different from past ones.
Supercycle Or Bear Market?
Analyst Garrett adds that comparing today’s Bitcoin market to 2022 is misleading because it ignores critical macro and structural differences.
In 2022, Bitcoin peaked amid soaring inflation, aggressive rate hikes, tightening liquidity, and a clear risk-off environment, conditions that drove distribution and a prolonged bear market.
By contrast, today’s setup features stabilization and absorption across key zones, particularly between $80,850 and $62,000, improving the bullish risk–reward profile.
A true 2022-style bear market, Garrett argues, would require a fresh inflation shock, renewed aggressive monetary tightening, and a sustained breakdown below major support levels, none of which are currently evident.
A Structural Shift In The Investor Base
Perhaps the most important difference is who owns Bitcoin today. The 2020–2022 cycle was dominated by retail speculation and high leverage.
Since 2023, spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought in long-term institutional holders who lock up supply, dampen volatility, and provide steadier demand.
This shift has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s volatility regime and market behavior, marking a structural inflection point. As a result, analysts argue that direct comparisons to the 2022 crypto-native bear market are analytically flawed.
Whether Bitcoin ultimately enters a super cycle or simply continues a slower expansion, the conditions driving price today are not the same ones that defined the last major downturn.
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