The probability that the U.S. takes control of Greenland this year has spiked on prediction markets as President Donald Trump intensifies push to annex the world’s largest island.
Will Trump’s Greenland Plans Succeed?
Odds in favor of the contract titled “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” surged to 22% on Polymarket, up from 8% since the year began.
Over $14 million has been wagered on the bet, among the highest on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based platform currently.
Meanwhile, odds on Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, have been broadly unchanged from last week, currently at 46%.
Punters are also betting on Trump’s threats of tariffs against countries resisting his Greenland plans, with odds exceeding 30% for new duties on Denmark, Finland, and France starting next month.
Tensions Escalate Between the US and EU
Greenland’s leadership has consistently rejected Trump’s attempts to gain control, with Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen stating that they would “choose” Denmark over the U.S.
EU ambassadors reached a broad agreement Sunday to dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs, while also drafting countermeasures in case the duties are imposed.
Member states are also considering the never-before-used Anti-Coercion Instrument, which could curb access to public tenders, investments, banking activity or trade in services where the U.S. holds a surplus, including digital services.
Industry and geopolitical analysts believe the plan to acquire Greenland, a semiautonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, could cost the U.S. nearly $1 trillion over the next 20 years with no significant economic return.
Photo Courtesy: Andrey Muravin on Shutterstock.com
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