With gold trading above $4,600 an ounce and silver pushing record highs above $90, precious metals have roared into 2026, extending blockbuster gains from 2025 — the strongest year in more than four decades.
But it’s the mining stocks that have quietly dominated the broader market over multiple timeframes in recent months.
Take the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX): the fund has rallied 82% over the past six months, compared with an 11% gain for the S&P 500.
Even stronger is the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL), which has surged 85% over the same period.
That raises the obvious question for investors: Can mining stocks maintain their shine in 2026, or has too much optimism already been priced in?
Mining Stocks Soared To the Moon While The Market Stayed Grounded
Fundamentals Are Supporting The Miners’ Strength
Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial, says investors have no shortage of macro reasons to favor precious metals.
“Investors seeking exposure to precious metals face a key choice: hold the metal or own the miners,” said Shipp.
“Mining stocks offer leverage to rising metals prices plus earnings power.”
Trailing 12-month revenue growth for precious metals miners is running near 26%. Operating margins expanded to about 37% from 16% a year earlier. Returns on equity climbed to roughly 13.5% from about 2.5%.
Earnings growth has followed. On a trailing basis, profits rose about 91%, up from 28% in the prior-year period.
Those numbers highlight the operating leverage embedded in mining businesses when commodity prices rise.
Looking ahead, consensus expectations remain bullish. Revenue for miners is projected to grow about 30% in fiscal 2025 and another 24% in 2026, while earnings are forecast to climb nearly 100% in 2025 and more than 60% in 2026.
For context, the so-called Magnificent Seven are expected to grow earnings closer to 20% annually over the same period.
Valuations also look relatively restrained. The mining index trades around 14 times projected 2027 earnings — roughly five turns below the S&P 500, even as the sector’s immediate earnings outlook appears significantly more robust.
“Despite much higher growth expectations in 2026, miners still trade at a sizable discount to the market,” Shipp said.
Technicals Are Flashing Yellow
From a technical standpoint, the message is now more cautious.
Mining stocks broke out above major resistance in April 2025 and have continued to climb within a steeply rising channel. Buying pressure has been broad, but conditions are stretched.
Nearly half of the index constituents now have Relative Strength Indexes above 70. The index is trading about 57% above its 200-day moving average, close to levels seen before a sharp pullback last October.
“Given this backdrop and the elevated risk of a potential pullback from these levels, we favor a tactical approach: using pullbacks within the channel as buying opportunities rather than chasing the current rally,” Shipp said.
Shipp also cautioned that mining stocks carry unique risks. Commodity cycles are volatile by nature, and geopolitical instability can impact mines in developing countries.
Nationalization, shifting tax regimes and royalty changes can affect even the best-run companies. Rising prices also risk attracting more supply, which could cap future upside.
Still, for investors seeking leverage to the precious metals rally, mining stocks offer compelling risk-reward — especially at current valuations.
Bottom Line
LPL’s research suggests mining stocks still have fundamental and technical support entering 2026, but much of the near-term upside is already reflected in prices.
From a technical perspective, the uptrend remains intact, but overbought conditions argue for discipline.
For investors, the path forward is clear but conditional: sustained gains likely require either further upside in gold and silver prices this year, or confidence that elevated prices can persist into 2027.
For investors navigating geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy concerns, LPL Research said mining stocks remain a compelling way to gain leveraged exposure to precious metals, as long as timing and risk tolerance are respected.
Photo: Parilov/Shutterstock
Recent Comments