President Donald Trump’s intervention in Venezuela has staked the region as the U.S. sphere of influence. While the global media focused on resources like oil, Trump’s move is bigger, and it could undermine China’s ability to expand and maintain its infrastructure.
Oil is not a single, interchangeable commodity. Each barrel contains a mix of hydrocarbon molecules, and those molecular “carbon chain lengths” determine what the oil is best suited for.
Long Chains in Short Supply
Venezuelan crude oil is exceptionally rich in very long carbon chains. These C50+ molecules are not your typical plane or car fuel. Instead, they’re the material that forms bitumen and asphalt. They are the glue that binds roads, bridges, airport runways, and rail beds.
Modern economies require a balanced mix of oil products. Gasoline is for consumers, diesel and jet fuel for logistics and aviation, and heavy residues for infrastructure. Light shale oil, which dominates U.S. production, is rich in short chains and poor in asphalt. Heavy oil, by contrast, can be efficiently “chopped” into diesel or left intact for paving. This is why Venezuelan crude has been so valuable to China’s infrastructure machine.
The market understands the dynamic between the crude oil supply well. Former hedge fund manager Michael Burry recently pointed out that “Gulf Coast refineries were purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy,” adding that “margins and supplies improve once the Venezuelan heavy comes through.” He noted that in the energy business, patience is nothing new, investments are made years ahead of payoff.
Single Point Of Dependency
China’s problem, however, is that without Venezuela, it faces a single point of dependency – Iran, which is already constrained owing to years of underinvestment. Realistically, it cannot significantly increase its output without significant capex, which would be unrealistic given the ongoing political instability.
China’s other partners are inadequate. Russia lacks sufficient true heavy grades, and its heavy crude is limited and inefficient. Meanwhile, Canadian tar sands are capacity-constrained, and the Trans Mountain pipeline is running near its upper limits.
According to calculations by Collapse Intelligence Agency, China imports roughly 2 million barrels per day of asphalt-rich oil via sanctioned and “shadow fleet” routes. Of that, about 500,000 barrels per day come from Venezuela. Using Venezuelan Merey 16’s density and asphalt yield, that equates to roughly 45,000 tons of asphalt per day, more than half of China’s estimated daily asphalt demand of around 80,000 tons.
The chemistry matters. Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crudes yield roughly 60% vacuum residue suitable for asphalt. Iranian and Russian heavy oils yield closer to 20–30%. Without Venezuelan blending material, Chinese refiners must rely on inferior feedstocks, producing asphalt that is more brittle, more temperature-sensitive, and prone to cracking within a few years rather than a decade.
Roads can still be built—but they degrade faster.
This is not merely a volume problem; it is a quality problem. Venezuelan bitumen acts as a performance additive that stabilizes China’s domestic heavy oils. Remove it, and the entire system deteriorates.
Thus, by controlling Venezuelan heavy crude, Trump has a strategic leverage to balance out the critical mineral supply. It is a resource that China cannot easily replace, and one that controls the foundations of its growth model.
Image via Shutterstock
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