A Polymarket trader lost about $2.36 million in just eight days after concentrating heavily on sports markets, despite posting a respectable 47.2% win rate.
What Happened: Blockchain data tracked by Lookonchain shows the trader, known as Bossoskil1, placed 53 bets, primarily across NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA markets.
He favoured spread markets, typically buying positions in the 40–60 cent range, where payouts can be substantial if the outcome breaks correctly.
When correct, the returns were large, ranging from roughly 60% to 150%.
Position sizing was aggressive, with $200,000 wagers common and some bets exceeding $1 million.
The trader held every position to settlement, with no hedging, scaling out, or partial profit-taking.
Over the period, Bossoskil1 recorded 25 winning trades and 28 losses, a result that appears statistically normal.
However, the payoff structure was unforgiving: losing bets went to zero, while a small number of large losses wiped out gains from multiple winning trades. A single seven-figure loss was enough to define an entire week.
By the eighth day, the account was down $2.36 million, not due to poor prediction accuracy, but because of unchecked risk exposure.
Why It Matters: This episode underscores that in high-variance markets such as sports spreads, conviction without position limits can be fatal. The issue was not being consistently wrong but allowing individual outcomes to determine survival.
In prediction markets, as in trading, having an edge is meaningless if losses are not controlled. Effective risk management, not confidence, is what keeps participants in the game.
Image: Shutterstock
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