Bettors on Polymarket now assign over a 50% probability to a U.S. military strike on Iran this month, following a new advisory urging Americans to leave the protest-hit country immediately.
Rising Tensions: US Strike Odds Surge
The odds that the U.S. will strike Iran by Jan. 31 have risen to 54%, up 9 percentage points in the last 24 hours. The probability of such a military action happening by Jan. 23 jumped from 29% to 43%
Roughly $13.7 million has been wagered on this bet. The market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. initiates a drone, missile or air strike on Iranian territory, including its embassies and consulates. However, missiles or drones that are intercepted won’t count.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.
Meanwhile, the odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, getting removed from power this month stood at only 20% as of this writing.
US Issues Advisory As Death Toll Rises
The speculation comes after the U.S. virtual embassy in Iran asked Americans to leave Iran amid escalating anti-regime protests, which have now entered their 16th day.
“U.S. nationals are at significant risk of questioning, arrest, and detention in Iran. Showing a U.S. passport or demonstrating connections to the United States can be reason enough for Iranian authorities to detain someone,” the advisory read.
The U.S. Virtual Embassy is Washington’s official diplomatic outreach platform to Iran since the two countries don’t have formal diplomatic relations.
At least 656 people, including 505 protesters, have been killed in the protests, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based non-profit organization.
Iran claims that foreign forces are behind the riots, which began due to public anger over the falling value of the national currency and skyrocketing inflation.
The Trump administration is mulling a range of responses, including military action, in response to the riots. Tehran has signaled both readiness for war and a willingness to engage in talks.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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