Cryptocurrency punters are betting on an imminent U.S. military intervention in Iran amid reports of rising fatalities in the current turmoil and President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to invade.
Rising Stakes: US-Iran Conflict Now Likely?
The odds that the U.S. will strike Iran by Jan. 16 rose from 27% to 32% over the last 24 hours on Polymarket.
The chances that such a military action will happen by the end of this month stood at 48%, while the likelihood of a strike by March 31 was 65% at the time of writing.
Nearly $9 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. initiates a drone, missile or air strike on Iranian territory, including its embassies and consulates. However, missiles or drones that are intercepted won’t count.
Meanwhile, the odds of a ground invasion by the U.S. military remained low, with only a 9% chance of that happening by Jan. 31.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.
A disclaimer on the Polymarket’s website reads, “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
Will US Action Escalate Tensions?
The betting comes amid reports that the Trump administration is weighing military options in response to the ongoing anti-regime protests in the Middle Eastern nation, which have now stretched into their 15th day.
Senior officials from major national security agencies are expected to brief Trump early next week on potential responses to the protests, The Washington Post reported, citing officials familiar with the matter.
Moreover, Trump said via his Truth Social that “Iran is looking at Freedom,” and the U.S. stands ready to help.
Iranian officials warned that the nation would retaliate against any U.S. aggression by striking American military bases in the Middle East.
Unrest Turns Deadly
At least 544 people have been killed in the protests, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based non-profit organization. Another 10,600 people have been detained over the fortnight of unrest, the agency said. The BBC also confirmed 180 deaths.
Iranian state media said that more than 100 members of its security forces have been killed during protests, which started over growing frustration with the collapsing national currency and soaring inflation.
Photo: noamgalai/Shutterstock
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