Wagering on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei losing power has surged dramatically on Polymarket as anti-regime protests entered their 12th day.
Bets On Khamenei And Iran Surge
In just four days since launch, the trade volume for the “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?” bet has spiked to $4.7 million.
It currently stands as one of the most popular bets on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based prediction platform, surpassing those tied to Greenland, tariffs, NBA games, and interest rate cuts.
Punters currently assign just a 17% chance that Khamenei will be removed from power by the end of the month, while betting heavily, at about 82%, on him continuing as Supreme Leader.
Notably, a bettor named TheBigBlind, who entered the bet at 11% odds of Khamenei falling, is up over $13,000.
Interestingly, a player named Chungguskhan made rapid trades on the bet on Thursday and currently holds 249,539.5 “No” shares on the outcome.
Polymarket, which allows USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) to make the bets, added a disclaimer to this contract, stating, “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
Iran Faces Internal Crisis
The odds come as authorities imposed a nationwide internet blackout in response to escalating civic unrest, now in its 12th day.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based nonprofit, at least 42 people have been killed during the unrest, including five minors under 18 and eight members of the security forces.
Iranian state media has downplayed the scale of the demonstrations that started after growing frustration over the collapse of the national currency, the Iranian Rial, and soaring inflation.
President Donald Trump said last week that the U.S. would come to the “rescue” of Iranian protesters if the regime resorts to violence
Photo: Image via Shutterstock/ saeediex
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