Howard Lutnick Says Trump’s Policies Could Drive 6% GDP Growth By 2026— But Q4 Could Be A ‘Mess’ Due To The Shutdown

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has forecasted a 6% GDP growth for the U.S. economy by 2026, citing President Donald Trump‘s policies as the driving force.

Lutnick, on the All-In Podcast on Thursday, attributed this projected growth to the large-scale construction of new factories and auto plants amid corporate investments under the Trump administration.

He also suggested that a new Federal Reserve chair who cuts rates could further boost the economy, potentially leading to even higher growth rates.

When host and billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya asked to put the 6% growth in context, Lutnick emphasized that this level of growth would result in a significant increase in jobs, particularly high-paying jobs, and that this would not be inflation but rather a healthy economic expansion.

However, the Commerce Secretary cautioned that the fourth quarter GDP would be a “mess” because of the prolonged shutdown. He explained how the furlough of the federal workforce would impact GDP, where the government had been paying them, yet they could not be productive due to the federal shutdown.

“So our fourth quarter GDP will be a point and a half lower than it otherwise would be for this oddity,” stated Lutnick.

GDP Surge Masks Deeper Economic Risks?

Lutnick’s prediction comes at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of both strength and weakness. The GDP is expected to boom in Q4 of 2025, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model raising its estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth to 5.4% annualized. This is the strongest quarterly growth rate since 1984, largely due to a sharp narrowing in the trade deficit following tariffs implemented under Trump.

However, some experts, such as economist David Rosenberg, have expressed concerns about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, pointing to a disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity. Despite a robust 4.3% growth for the third quarter, Rosenberg argues that the U.S. economy is showing signs of recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.