For years, prediction markets lived on the fringes of finance — interesting, occasionally accurate, but easy for investors to dismiss. Danny Moses says that complacency is becoming a mistake in 2026.
In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Moses was blunt: prediction markets are no longer noise. As liquidity improves, he says they’re turning into a real signal — one investors ignore at their own risk.
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Tell-tale signs include:
1. Liquidity Is Finally Showing Up
Moses says the biggest change is structural. “I think we will see liquidity continue to increase in prediction markets,” he said, a prerequisite for anything to move from curiosity to tradable asset.
Event contracts, in his view, are simply another way to express conviction. “Using event contracts to express an opinion is no different than trying to find a stock to express the same theme,” Moses said.
That mindset shift — from novelty to utility — is what turns markets into markets.
2. Institutional Validation Is Piling Up
The second sign is validation from the incumbents.
Moses pointed to Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE:ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, investing billions into prediction market infrastructure. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are raising capital at multi-billion-dollar valuations. And the CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) — the world’s largest commodity exchange — is partnering with FanDuel to build prediction markets.
That’s not experimentation. That’s endorsement.
3. Investor Behavior Is Already Changing
The final signal is subtle but powerful: how investors consume information.
“I glance through event contracts now like I do the FT [Financial Times] or the WSJ [Wall Street Journal] each day,” Moses said, using them as a real-time check on what markets might be missing.
As liquidity improves, he expects that habit to spread — and trading to follow.
In 2026, prediction markets aren’t just predicting outcomes.
They’re becoming part of how markets think.
Photos: Danny Moses, courtesy D. Moses; Prediction courtesy of Shutterstock
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