Billionaire investor Ray Dalio issued a stark warning regarding the future of global finance during a recent address at the Oxford Union, asserting that all major fiat currencies are “in trouble” due to unsustainable debt loads.
The Mechanics Of Devaluation
The Bridgewater Associates founder predicts the world is entering a period of significant currency devaluation comparable to the 1930s and 1970s.
Dalio’s central thesis rests on the concept that “money is debt.” He explained to the Oxford audience that fiat currency is essentially a promise to receive payment.
When governments accrue insurmountable debt—such as the United States’ current $38 trillion burden—they are eventually forced to devalue the currency to service those liabilities.
“If you devalue money, you devalue debt,” Dalio stated. He argued that developed nations are now trapped in a cycle where they cannot raise taxes or cut spending enough to balance their books without causing social upheaval.
Consequently, policymakers will inevitably choose to print more money, diluting its value.
A Structural Trap
According to Dalio, this dynamic is not unique to the U.S.; it is also playing out in the UK and France.
He noted that the political cost of austerity is too high, citing the UK’s recent turnover of four prime ministers in five years as evidence of the instability caused by economic pressure.
With tax hikes driving wealth away and spending cuts hurting the vulnerable, the system leans toward inflation as the path of least resistance.
The Pivot To Gold
As confidence in fiat currencies erodes, Dalio highlighted a shift in global reserves. He pointed out that central banks are increasingly selling debt-based assets (like government bonds) and buying gold.
Describing gold as the “oldest money” and a non-liability asset, he suggested that this rotation marks a defensive move against the coming devaluation of paper money.
While the U.S. Dollar Index Spot has declined 9.63% year-to-date, Gold Spot U.S. Dollar has scaled fresh highs this year at $4,550.11 per ounce, rising 67.25% over the year.
Here’s a list of some ETFs tracking the dollar index that investors could consider.
| Dollar ETFs | YTD Performance | One-Year Performance |
| Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) | -9.07% | -7.89% |
| WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSE:USDU) | -7.66% | -6.79% |
| Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE:UDN) | 10.25% | 9.06% |
US Benchmarks To End 2025 On A Positive Note
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 was 17.67% higher, whereas the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones gained 21.75% and 14.32%, respectively.
However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.0073% at $687.80, while the QQQ declined 0.0081% to $620.82, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The futures of Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were lower on Tuesday.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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