The outlook for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in 2026 is starting to improve after months of sustained sell pressure following the Oct.10 liquidation event.
What Happened: According to 10x Research, a rare convergence of options positioning, compressed volatility and technical exhaustion is creating conditions that have historically preceded larger price moves.
The lack of upside in recent months has not been driven by unattractive valuations, but by weak capital inflows.
Investors largely rotated into year-end outperformers, leaving Bitcoin sidelined.
Since the Oct. 10 crash, Bitcoin’s market structure deteriorated further as ETF outflows accelerated.
While selling pressure appeared technically exhausted by Nov. 22, a meaningful rebound failed to materialize due to the absence of fresh demand.
With year-end positioning now unwinding and new risk budgets set to emerge, several subtle indicators suggest Bitcoin may be closer to a multi-week move than price action alone implies.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bounces To $88,000 As Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Trade Sideways
Why It Matters: 10x Research notes that positioning across derivatives, ETFs and technical indicators is beginning to shift in Bitcoin’s favor.
A key catalyst is the largest Bitcoin options expiration on record, where concentrated strike levels and elevated open interest could create asymmetric price moves.
Historically, extreme caution into year-end has often been followed by sharp sentiment reversals as the calendar turns and capital is redeployed.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from pure downside exhaustion toward a setup with growing upside optionality.
Earlier expectations called for volatility to compress into year-end, keeping Bitcoin range-bound between $70,000 and $100,000 amid limited catalysts and a less dovish Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin’s relative underperformance also made it vulnerable to tax-loss selling, a dynamic that now appears largely complete.
With those headwinds fading, the focus is shifting toward identifying a precise window to turn bullish and re-enter Bitcoin.
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