Copper has surged past $12,000 per ton for the first time on record. The late rally rounds out a breakthrough year for the orange metal, which saw a nearly 40% price increase.
The move reflects growing investor confidence in unavoidable future shortages. Long-standing supply constraints are now obviously colliding with structurally rising demand from technology and the energy transition.
Copper faces significant pressure with the market entering a structural deficit next year and facing a projected shortfall of 19 million metric tons by 2050 if new mines and recycling facilities are not developed, the recent BloombergNEF outlook warns.
Also Read: Copper’s Deficit Will Not Be The Only One, Study Shows
Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:COPX) is closing the year at fresh highs. So far in 2025, it has gained 93.14%.
The Widening Gap
On the supply side, copper markets have been repeatedly hit by mine disruptions, declining ore grades, and operational challenges across key producing regions in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. At the same time, the pipeline of large new mines remains thin. Developing a copper project can take more than a decade from discovery to production, and permitting delays, rising capital costs, and community opposition have slowed investment just as existing operations struggle to maintain output.
Demand, meanwhile, continues to expand across multiple fronts. Copper is a cornerstone of electrification, used extensively in power grids, renewable energy systems, and electric vehicles. Beyond energy, demand is accelerating from data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing, adding competition between sectors for the same metal and reinforcing the sense of a tightening market.
Chile’s 2026 Plan
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, is positioning itself to benefit from the trend. Thirteen copper projects worth about $14.8 billion should reach key milestones in 2026.
Seven projects are slated to begin operations, potentially adding almost 500,000 tons of annual capacity. These include Anglo American plc (OTC:AAUKF) and Glencore Plc’s (OTC:GLNCY) Collahuasi C20+ upgrades, Codelco’s Rajo Inca structural project, Capstone Copper Corp.’s (OTC:CSCCF) Mantos Blancos expansion, and Andes Iron’s Dominga. A further six developments, including BHP Group Limited’s (NYSE:BHP) Spence and Capstone’s Santo Domingo, are planning to start construction.
Most of the miners are looking for brownfield expansions and productivity gains rather than riskier greenfield builds. Still, safety comes at a price of a slower rate of change. Even if projects hit their timelines, full ramp-up might take years.
Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of Chilean mining consultancy GEM, expects the production gain to be just 100,000 tons in 2026. In the short term, Guzmán sees community risk as a priority for Chile, which is set to change administrations in March 2026.
“The role of communities will continue to be relevant,” he said for Mining.com, noting their role in project approvals.
Read Next:
Image via Shutterstock
Recent Comments