Bitcoin Down 6% As Gold Shines With 70% Rally To $4,500: How 2025 Surprised Everyone

As Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits around $87,000, down 6.4% in 2025, gold — tracked by the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) — has returned over 70% and hit an all-time high above $4,500 this year.

Bitcoin Built Infrastructure, Gold Got The Capital

Bitcoin achieved milestones that seemed impossible five years ago. 

Spot ETFs pulled in over $132 billion from BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK), Grayscale, and Fidelity Investments. 

Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) accumulated over 200,000 BTC. 

Corporate treasuries treated Bitcoin as a legitimate diversifier, with digital asset treasuries holding over 1 million BTC collectively.

On top of that, Bitcoin’s volatility dropped to 30% by mid-2025, the lowest on record.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has pivoted on its previous crypto-skeptic position and is following BlackRock by offering its institutional clients crypto exposure.

Despite all of this progress, Bitcoin is on track to end the year in the red, a feat that has been reserved for bear market years.

Why Central Banks Chose Gold Over Bitcoin

Gold meanwhile saw central banks purchase over 1,000 tons in 2025, marking the fastest accumulation rate in decades. 

This demand is policy-driven rather than speculative, as central banks seek to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar amid accelerating geopolitical fragmentation.

The critical distinction is that central bank accumulation of gold operates independently of price movements. 

When the Bank of China or Russia’s central bank decides to reduce dollar reserves by 5%, they execute the reallocation regardless of whether gold is cheap or expensive. 

This creates automatic, sustained buying pressure.

In contrast, Bitcoin has no equivalent demand mechanism. 

No central bank has announced plans to accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and the notion of central banks holding Bitcoin remains speculative and contingent on regulatory clarity that may never materialize.

What Bitcoin Needs To Close The Gap

For Bitcoin to achieve gold-like positioning, several things must occur. 

First, Bitcoin needs to rally during a major macroeconomic dislocation, not decline with equities. 

Second, a major central bank announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve would provide institutional permission. 

Third, clearer regulatory status across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets would reduce uncertainty.

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