Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) looked poised for a massive run after the 2024 presidential election, but the dream of a run to $1 collapsed when hype ran into supply math, fading liquidity, and thin real-world demand.
Election Euphoria Ignited The Rally
Dogecoin surged after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, jumping 152% in a single month and peaking near $0.4846 by year-end.
The move revived speculation that the meme-inspired cryptocurrency could finally reach $1.
Momentum accelerated after Trump appointed Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency, shortened to “DOGE.”
The acronym alone triggered aggressive speculative buying, amplified by Musk’s long-standing public support for the token.
The $1 Target Ran Into A Math Problem
At $1, Dogecoin’s market capitalization would approach $147 billion based on current circulating supply.
That would place it among the largest digital assets globally and larger than many established public companies.
But unlike Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin has no supply cap.
Roughly 5 billion new DOGE are added to circulation every year, creating constant inflation and ongoing selling pressure that increases the demand required just to maintain price levels.
Selling intensified as DOGE approached $0.48, with early buyers locking in gains.
That zone quickly became heavy resistance, and recovery attempts failed in early 2025.
Trading volume followed price lower. Daily volume peaked near $15 billion in December 2024 before sliding to roughly $6.6 billion later in 2025.
As participation faded, the rally lost fuel.
Large holders also stepped back.
On-chain data showed limited whale accumulation during the decline, leaving retail traders without sustained support.
Utility And Adoption Remain Thin
Beyond price action, Dogecoin continues to struggle with real-world use.
About 2,300 merchants accept DOGE globally, many concentrated in niche online services.
That compares poorly with traditional payment networks such as Visa, which handles tens of thousands of transactions per second.
Dogecoin’s one-minute block time further limits its competitiveness as a payment rail.
ETF Demand Stayed Muted
Dogecoin gained regulated access in late 2025 with the launch of the REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (BATS:DOJE) in September and Grayscale’s Dogecoin Trust (NYSE:GDOG) in November.
Despite the milestone, demand stayed limited.
As of late December 2025, total net assets across U.S. Dogecoin spot ETFs stood near $5.4 million, according to SoSoValue data, a fraction of the inflows seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) products.
Weekly inflows were inconsistent, with multiple weeks showing flat or negative flows.
ETF approval failed to generate the scale of demand needed to support a push toward $1.
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