Prominent crypto analyst Ben Cowen does not expect the Fed to aggressively cut rates until the stock market collapses, leaving Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) stuck in range-bound misery through summer 2026.
The Fed Only Rescues Stocks, Not Crypto
Speaking on the Bankless podcast, Cowen laid out the dynamic: “When crypto drops, the Fed does not care. When the stock market drops, then they come to the rescue.”
He pointed to 2019 as the template.
Bitcoin topped on apathy and bled against the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) while stocks kept climbing.
The rally didn’t come until the Fed aggressively cut rates and printed money, which only happened after the stock market crashed during the pandemic.
The same pattern is playing out now.
Why The Euphoria Phase Never Came
Cowen says Bitcoin’s cycle ended in October, lasting roughly 1,462 days in line with previous cycles.
However, unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle never reached euphoria and instead topped on apathy just like 2019.
The culprit is monetary policy.
The Fed funds rate sits at 4.33% while the 2-year yield is at 4.24%, which means the economy is still in restricted territory.
Ethereum historically performs best when the Fed funds rate drops well below the 2-year yield, as it did in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
Right now, the market needs one more rate cut just to reach neutral territory.
As long as rates stay above the neutral level, speculative assets like Ethereum struggle.
However, Cowen doesn’t think Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to be remembered for aggressively cutting rates before leaving office in May 2026.
As a result, macro headwinds for crypto persist through summer 2026.
Ethereum Could Follow Tesla’s Violent Rally-Then-Crash Pattern
Cowen compared Ethereum’s chart to Tesla in 2024.
Tesla bottomed in April 2024, rallied to sweep its high, then eventually made new all-time highs after a 56% drawdown that lasted 16-18 weeks.
Similarly, Ethereum bottomed in April 2025 and is now around week 18 of its drawdown, sitting roughly 40% below recent highs.
The parallel suggests Ethereum could rally to new all-time highs in early 2026, then crash back down mid-to-late 2026.
If Ethereum follows Tesla’s pattern to new highs, it might happen very quickly and potentially serve as an “exit rally” for institutions to distribute to retail.
Cowen’s ETH/BTC ratio target sits at 0.053, which corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the pre-merge low.
If Bitcoin rallies to $100,000 on a macro lower high and the ETH/BTC ratio hits 0.053, that puts Ethereum at $5,300.
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