China’s dominance in mineral processing — not mining — is emerging as the defining fault line in the global race for critical resources such as copper.
The U.S. imports roughly 60% of the copper it consumes — a reliance drawing fresh scrutiny as demand accelerates across electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense.
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In an exclusive email interview with Benzinga, John Shively, CEO of Pebble Mine, Alaska (the largest untapped copper mine in the U.S.) framed the issue as structural rather than cyclical. “Right now we import about 60% of our copper,” Shively said, adding that reliance will “only increase if we don’t allow prospects like Pebble to proceed.”
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China Has A Processing Advantage
While supply often grabs headlines, Shively emphasized that processing is where strategic control is won or lost. China, he said, is “light years ahead of [the U.S.].” That’s because it made deliberate decisions to secure every stage of the mineral supply chain.
China’s edge, Shively says, comes from its focus on refining and processing, which determines who controls the final metal. “They have control over the metal that is the end product,” he said. In the U.S., meanwhile, domestic processing capacity remains limited.
That imbalance is increasingly relevant for investors tracking large copper producers such as Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) and Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO), where long-term output and margin visibility depend not just on reserves, but on downstream infrastructure and policy certainty.
Why Pebble Keeps Surfacing
Against that backdrop, Shively described Pebble as “the most significant undeveloped mineral prospect in the United States,” particularly as copper has now been added to the U.S. critical minerals list. He noted that policymakers increasingly recognize copper’s strategic importance, especially as supply chains tighten globally.
The debate has also drawn attention from investors seeking broader exposure through vehicles like the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:COPX), which reflects how regulatory and supply-chain developments can ripple across the sector, not just individual projects.
The Investment Signal
Shively told Benzinga that regulatory uncertainty has consistently weighed on capital allocation. Past EPA actions, he said, have “repeatedly been identified by surveys of major mining companies as a barrier to investment in the U.S.” The result has been hesitation among companies considering large, long-cycle projects.
Removing that uncertainty would matter beyond a single project. As Shively put it, “China clearly knows the critical role copper will continue to play in the future.” The open question, he added, is “will the U.S. understand it too.”
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