Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be entering a prolonged phase of apathy, what analyst Benjamin Cowen calls the “Bear Market Blues,” where downside risk remains elevated before any durable recovery takes shape.
What Happened: In a recent podcast, Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s current setup closely resembles 2019, when prices topped just as quantitative tightening (QT) was ending.
With QT now winding down again, he believes the four-year cycle precedent points to further downside rather than an immediate rebound.
Unlike prior cycle peaks driven by retail euphoria and altcoin manias, this downturn is marked by indifference.
That lack of speculative excess makes the drawdown feel slower and heavier. Cowen warns that, as in 2019, Bitcoin could continue bleeding for months even after QT ends.
He sees a high probability of a liquidity sweep toward the ~$74,000 lows, followed by a grind lower toward the 200-week simple moving average, currently between $60,000 and $70,000.
The Nvidia Pattern: Sweep Then Rally?
Cowen highlighted a pattern recently seen in Nvidia: a low, a sweep of that low, and then a rally. Bitcoin’s recent three-week bounce was weak, about half the strength of similar countertrend rallies in 2022, suggesting it may only be a pause before another leg down.
His base case is a sweep of the $74,000 area to flush weak hands, a countertrend rally in early 2026, and potentially a final lower low into mid-2026.
The 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently sitting between $60,000 and $70,000, remains the ultimate magnet for a bottom.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Remain Weak On Fresh ETF Outflows
What’s Next: Cowen cautions against expecting a V-shaped recovery.
The “Bear Market Blues” could persist another 100–120 days, with a more durable bottom forming around April or May 2026, possibly catalysed by a shift in Fed leadership or aggressive rate cuts.
His advice is simple: “Trade the market you have, not the market you want.”
While the near-term outlook remains bearish, Cowen stresses that generational wealth is built during periods of apathy, by accumulating when sentiment is dead, not by chasing rallies.
The real money this cycle was made by those who bought the 2022 lows, and the market is setting up a similar opportunity for patient capital.
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