Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) stock has plunged around 41% year to date, as per data from Benzinga Pro.
Novo Nordisk’s stock was significantly hit when the company shared headline results from the REDEFINE 2 phase 3 trial in the global REDEFINE program, investigating once-weekly subcutaneous CagriSema (a fixed dose combination of cagrilintide 2.4 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg) compared to placebo.
First in May, Novo Nordisk lowered its 2025 sales growth, then again in July, it further trimmed its 2025 guidance. During its third quarter, the Danish company revised sales growth guidance to be 8-11% at CER.
Also Read: FDA Weighs Rapid Review For Eli Lilly Obesity Pill As Novo Nordisk Nears Launch
The shift underscores a sharp reversal for a company that began the year as Europe’s most valuable listed firm. With the core U.S. patent for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, set to expire in 2032, investors are increasingly questioning the durability of Novo’s long-term growth trajectory.
Competitive Landscape: Eli Lilly Comparison
While Novo’s shares have declined, rival Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) has moved in the opposite direction, with the stock up about 38%.
“When I look at it right now, organically, their pipeline doesn’t convince me that this situation is manageable,” Paul Major, a portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management, told Bloomberg.
Major, who sold shares in Novo earlier this year, said the stock will probably continue to de-rate until investors see a compelling catalyst to reassure them on Novo’s future growth.
When we look at Novo Nordisk’s pipeline, it mainly comprises insulin products, heart disease medicines, and weight loss drugs.
Whereas Eli Lilly’s pipeline is much broader, with drugs for cancer, weight loss, alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, psoriasis, allergic rhinitis, gastric disorders, and skin diseases, among others.
Pricing and availability will be critical. If Novo Nordisk brings the pill to market ahead of Lilly, investors will focus on whether it can effectively leverage a first-mover advantage, something it failed to do with the Wegovy injection in 2021.
As per a July report, Novo Nordisk’s executives allegedly ignored internal warnings that the company was unprepared to launch its obesity drug Wegovy.
Wegovy Performance And Market Share Pressure
Wegovy, approved in the U.S. in mid-2021, marked a major advancement in obesity treatment and helped Novo generate $46 billion in net profit since then.
But the company has struggled to keep pace with Lilly’s Zepbound, which has surpassed Wegovy in weekly new prescriptions this year.
Investor attention will also turn to a planned 2026 head-to-head trial of Novo’s CagriSema versus Lilly’s Zepbound, along with Novo Nordisk’s initial guidance for the year.
In September, Novo Nordisk presented data from the STEER real-world study.
Compared with Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Zepbound, Mounjaro), Wegovy showed a significant 57% greater risk reduction for heart attack, stroke, and cardiovascular-related death or death from any cause, in people with overweight or obesity and CVD, while on treatment with no treatment gaps of more than 30 days.
Bloomberg-tracked analyst estimates point to a potential sales decline in 2026, a sharp reversal from the 25%–30% growth recorded during Novo’s peak years.
NVO Price Action: Novo Nordisk shares were down 1.13% at $49.80 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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